|FROM:||BRENT SEABORN, STRATEGY DIRECTOR|
|RE:||STATE OF THE RACE|
|DATE:||JUNE 22, 2007|
Mayor Giuliani remains well positioned to win the Presidential nomination as we enter the summer phase of the campaign. We have built a strong organization, done well in the first three debates and maintain a durable lead in the polls. And we have seen a 4th candidate enter the "top-tier" of the Republican primary race.
MAYOR GIULIANI REMAINS FRONTRUNNER IN NATIONAL POLLING
Mayor Giuliani continues to lead the polls; in fact, Mayor Giuliani has lead 81 of 84 national polls conducted this year. Three recent major, national polls show Mayor Giuliani with double digit leads over his nearest opponent; a recent Today/Gallup Poll1 and an ABC News/Washington Post Poll2 have Mayor Giuliani receiving 32% of the vote among likely Republican primary voters, and both show a 13-point lead for the Mayor. A recent Quinnipiac3 national survey finds Mayor Giuliani leading the GOP Primary Field with 27% support and enjoying a 12-point advantage over his closest opponents.
Because we now have four players, I suspect that we will continue to see a tightening of the race over the summer. It will be interesting to see if 4 candidates can stay in the top tier over the course of the summer or if support for one or two begins to drop.
MAYOR GIULIANI'S RECORD OF LEADERSHIP IS ESTABLISHED IN THE MINDS OF VOTERS
The ABC News/Washington Post Poll offers some insight as to why the Mayor maintains a lead in public opinion polling.
- 55% of Republican primary voters say is the strongest leader in the race - that is a 29-point lead over his nearest opponent.
- 53% say he has the best chance of being elected President in 2008 - a 31-point lead over his nearest opponent.
- 59% would trust him to handle a major crisis - a 36-point lead over his nearest opponent.
- Mayor Giuliani leads on other key attributes as well - he is the "most inspiring" and "best understands the problems of people like you".
In addition to his leadership, a plurality of Republican primary voters says that "is closest to you on the issues" (Washington Post/ABC Poll). A recent Quinnipiac Poll reports that 55% of Republican primary voters cite the Mayor's record or his positions on issues as the reason they support him, and 35% cite the way he handled 9/11. Mayor Giuliani's support is based on a broad and deep understanding of his record and optimistic vision for America.
PRIMARY AND CAUCUS CALENDAR SUPPORTS MAYOR GIULIANI
The primary calendar continues to change in a way that favors our campaign. , and still hold their traditionally critical position in the nomination process. Additionally, , , and have added themselves to the pre-February 5th races. We are confident the Mayor is strongly positioned in the early states. Despite millions of dollars having been spent on TV by other campaigns, the Mayor is still competitive in , and . is a critical state in the Pre-Feb. 5 primary lineup. We are optimistic about the Mayor's potential for success in as he has been the frontrunner in nearly all polls conducted in the state and enjoy a considerable lead. may prove to be the most important primary of this election.
Another important development - has moved its primary to February 5th and has just recently agreed to make it a "winner-take-all" primary.
MAYOR GIULIANI IS THE MOST ELECTABLE IN 2008
Mayor Giuliani is the only Republican candidate who consistently beats presumptive Democratic nominee . Mayor Giuliani leads in 34 of 41 national polls. Furthermore, Mayor Giuliani is the only Republican candidate in this race that can expand the general election playing field on to Democratic turf - states like , , , , , and . By expanding the playing field to this extent we will force the Democrats to play on defense rather than on offense in our territory.
MAYOR GIULIANI HAS AN AGGRESSIVE AND CLEAR MESSAGE
Recently in , Mayor Giuliani outlined his agenda for this campaign. He introduced his Twelve Commitments to the American people and set forth a positive, proactive plan for his campaign. He is focused on the future and has presented a bold agenda for changing how things are done in this country.
The Twelve Commitments:
- I will keep America on offense in the Terrorists' War on Us.
- I will end illegal immigration, secure our borders and identify every non-citizen in our nation.
- I will restore fiscal discipline and cut wasteful Washington spending.
- I will cut taxes and reform the tax code.
- I will impose accountability on .
- I will lead America towards energy independence.
- I will give Americans more control over, and access to, healthcare with affordable and portable free-market solutions.
- I will increase adoptions, decrease abortions, and protect the quality of life for our children.
- I will reform the legal system and appoint strict constructionist judges.
- I will ensure that every community in America is prepared for terrorist attacks and natural disasters.
- I will provide access to a quality education to every child in America by giving real school choice to parents.
- I will expand America's involvement in the global economy and strengthen our reputation around the world.
As the summer progresses, the Mayor will take time to present the details on each one of his Twelve Commitments. This week in , the Mayor outlined his plan to restore fiscal discipline to and fight the culture of spending.
We will use the summer to further define Mayor Giuliani and his vision for America. We know Republican primary voters hold a very positive view of the Mayor - voters are predisposed to absorb positive information about the Mayor and support him. As voters have the opportunity to learn about the Mayor's Twelve Commitments, we will have provided them with ample cause to vote for Mayor Giuliani and solidify support.
As the Mayor continues his dialogue with American voters, it will become clear that besides being a strong supporter of staying on offense in the terrorists' war on us and the most effective leader in the field, Mayor Giuliani is the real fiscal conservative in this race.
While the race has tightened and our campaign has been challenged, we continue to lead in public opinion polling and we are now a better defined campaign than when this race began in February. Americans hold a clear view of Mayor Giuliani. As our supporters better understand Mayor Giuliani, their support for him strengthens and intensifies. Through the summer the Mayor will continue to drive his message, define himself and set the agenda for this campaign.
1USA Today/Gallup Poll - Conducted 6/1/07-6/3/07
2ABC News/Washington Post Poll - Conducted 5/29/07-6/1/07
3Quinnipiac Poll - Conducted 6/5/07-6/11/07